Thursday, August 18, 2011

Closing Bell

We had a big correction today that we think was driven by the sell-off on the equity markets. The DAX plunged almost 6% which is a decline we haven't seen for a while. We moved our stop to the entry after the usual morning spike, so our long position was taken out at 12.60.

We have to admit that we are a bit split as what to do now. Some of us started to short the market at around 12. 45. Some of us think that we should wait for the confirmation of the reversal and see the 12.15 support broken.

It is worth to note that from a technical point of view the carbon remained relatively strong if we compare it to DAX. The DAX broke key support level and is testing now the recent lows.

It is likely that carbon prices will be driven by the sentiment on the equity markets in the coming days. If the DAX makes a new low then the carbon prices could  really turn south. We expect that reaching the 12.00 level could trigger many long stops so we might see some fierce price action if we get there. 

Those of us who haven't turned bearish so far are watching the short term trendline breakout. Though, it would be somewhat nerve wrecking to stay in any position over the weekend, therefore might stay away from trading tomorrow unless we see some obvious price action. 

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