Friday, September 30, 2011
We entered with a small long position @ 10.80 with a SL @ 10.48.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Technically we could see a breakout from a downtrend, however met with somewhat strong resistance around 10.90 EUR.
Tomorrow could be a very interesting day as further break higher could prove to be a strong buy signal. Also we could see some short covering ahead of the weekend. Stay tuned!
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Monday, September 26, 2011
The market continues to be volatile, there can be some rebound and positive days, as the downtrend which we are seeing since 16 September, in the eyes of some trades could have led to a point where the current EUA price is a bargain for them and they will come in and buy it. However until the situation with Greece being given more money or they default is clear - it will be difficult to see any real signs of recovery.
Friday, September 23, 2011
Thursday, September 22, 2011
The FED statement resulted in a sharp fall of the stock indices yesterday. FED said they would replace short-term debt in the central bank’s portfolio with longer-term Treasury bonds in an attempt to further cut borrowing costs. This won’t result in much excess liquidity that the markets hoped for. The FED also said that it was acting in view of “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”
Due to the European problems the DAX has been anyway weaker for a while now relative to the US indices. It has also broken down the trendline support yesterday. The next important level is at around 5000. Breaking this resistance could result in further sharp decline.
Oil has been very volatile since the beginning of August hence very difficult to trade. It is exhibiting also a sort of trendline support breakdown despite the fact that we saw three consecutive sharp declines in crude inventories.
There is no doubt that mainly the European news drive the markets, therefore it is important to watch the EURUSD price development. We saw here a more obvious trendline support breakdown. Now the 1.35 low is the critical support level. We had a few lower highs in a row that suggest that this support level might not be very strong.
The overall picture seems to be pretty bearish which is not a good news for carbon. We are at a critical support level now at around 11.60. If we break below this level we might retest the low around 10.00.
Summing all this up we don’t think it is wise to take any long position in these instruments now. We watch only short signals now to enter the markets.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Monday, September 19, 2011
Thursday, September 15, 2011
As usual we were looking for entry signal on a shorter timeframe and entered long at 12.25 with a stop at 12.00.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
After weak opening on Monday carbon recovered quite well and climbed above 12.00 EUR during quite volatile two sessions (Monday and Tuesday).
Few mixed signals and information influenced the market. One of the reported events was an accident in a nuclear facility in France, which was read by the market as a leakage in a nuclear power plant and this sent the power and carbon price higher. It turned out no nuclear power plant was affected but carbon seemed to find a support at 11.80 and traded above that level since than.
The bounce from 11.60 EUR and further support from 11.80 made us close our shorts which we had since Friday, as no "armageddon" came to the market (yet). There seem to be a breakout from the downtrend - somethign which we saw at the beginning of last week also (bounce back from 12.20 and trading up to 12.50 before further slip - compare with the chart).
12.15 EUR for carbon still seem to be a resistance at this point.
Any views and comments are most welcome.
Friday, September 9, 2011
The very important events today on the markets were:
1. It was reported that ECB Executive Board Member Jurgen Stark has stepped down. The rumours say it was in connection with a disagreement over bond-purchase programme.
2. Germany is preparing to shield its banks from a Greek default.
3. Angela Merkel said it may be necessary to change the EU treaty to preserve Euro and the EU should not be afraid to do that.
This all led to Euro losing value to USD and any events during the weekend that may further undermine the trust in Euro-zone, will weight on how the markets open on Monday.
We stay short on carbon.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
This week there are few EUA auctions (by Gremany, Greece and the UK). It has been a while since the last auctions took place - so the outcome in terms of price and submitted volume (in bids) may shed a new light on the near term price development.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Friday was relatively slow day on carbon market. In the first half of the day, the price barely changed. It seemed like most of the traders were waiting for
Today is the Labor Day Holiday in the US - which should result in lower liquidity on the markets. Difficult to judge if those in Europe will take advantage of it and which way the markets would go.
We have shortened the market on the break below 12.60 EUR (12.59 EUR) with a SL at 13.00 EUR.
Friday, September 2, 2011
We were too agreesive in both (1) adding to the short, (2) setting the SL very tight.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Yesterday we saw a breakout and a new higher high, however this proved to be a false breakout. Quite quickly there was a correction and a trend break-down @ around 13.20 EUR with further confirmation of breaking below 13.10 EUR.
We have entered with short position and a S/L @ 13.15 EUR, trading the break below 13.10 EUR.