Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Closing Bell

EUAs were trading sideways, which can be explained by the market awating for the big news from Merkel-Sarkozy tandem leading the EU into the brigher future (or not).

Strong closing should provide good support for tomorrow.

If there is any good news from EU, and market continues to rise, we could see it going towards (breaking) 10.90 (recent resistance) which could create a nice double bottom.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Opening Bell

Carbon marked a breakout at the end of last week, despite the "threat" of fresh supply coming in from the sale of EUAs by EIB from NER300. Merkel-Sarkozy being closer and closer on agreeing a broad rescue plan sends some positive sentiment across all markets.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Monday, October 10, 2011

Market Close

Carbon had a good day today, so had all other markets cheering French-German agreement on supporting European banks. EUR gained to USD which could have given support to carbon, but also the cold weather outside created good demand for power.

Technically carbon still follows the upward trend and since last Tuesday (this years lows @ 9.80 EUR) gained some 9%.

All the conditions (oil, EURUSD, power demand) signal continuation of a bullish trend tomorrow. Strong opening tomorrow morning can lead to the break of today's resistance @ 10.72 Let't see.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Midday Market Update

Today carbon is nowhere close to yesterday's excitement. Low volumes and low volatility. Friday mood is in the air. Other markets are waiting for US data about Non-Farm Employment Change and Employment Rate.

Carbon is still following a light upward trend.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Opening Bell

Carbon bounced back off its lows this week and we could see a tradable short-term break out.

However, the last night announcement by EIB that it could start auctioning Phase III EUA from the NER300 reserve as early as mid-November and todays EUA auction by the UK government has somewhat limited the upward trend.

Looking at the bigger picture (1hr chart), the price failed to break the trend-line. If the price forms a new higher low today, we might see another break-out attempt.

Monday, October 3, 2011

The Big Picture: We are at important levels

More than a week passed since we last posted our broader view on the markets. Unfortunately the sentiment didn't change much, the bears still controll the markets.  What is very important to note that many instruments are approaching key support levels. Should these levels fail we might see some more sell of. So this week might be critical and we can hope that the old saying, that prices don’t go straight up or down, holds true and we see at least some correction in the coming days.

The index is at the 1,115 support where we see some signs of potential bounce back . The next critical level  is at 1,080 that is a lowest low now. Should that break, markets could switch to a freefall mode.

The German index bounced back last week from the 5,000 level which is a critical support. Suprisingly it had somewhat better relative performance last week than its US piers. Though, the bounce back trendline support was broken down again so we might see again a retest of the magic 5,000 level.

The WTI is still very volatile and difficult to reed its chart. The critical support is at 76.00.

Despite to the small correction later last week EUR felt to a new low this morning.

Carbon had a terrible month in September. The price is retesting twice now the 10.25 lowest low we saw back in August. The chart is still really very bearish and we should wait and see how this 10.25 holds this week.

In general we might say that it is better to look for short opportunities once critical levels fall. Trying to catch the bottom is a very difficult and risky exercise.