Thursday, January 12, 2012

Market steady after EIB report

The previous trade recommendation wasn't triggered. The EIB report showed a sales of 12m units versus 20m expected, which should be bearish for carbon. However for time being the prices are supported at 6.90 EUR and seems this is the test for the breakout above 7.00 EUR.













At the moment it is unclear to see whether the potential risk is to the up- or downside. We would still look at buying the breakout above 7.25 EUR, but potentialy, there is a short oportunity if we fall below 6.90 EUR.

3 comments:

  1. HI! Today I discover your site, seems quite interesting for me, could you tell me please when the certificates for aviation ( EUAA ?) will be transacted? They get certificate on 28-th February every year and they must surrender on April next year? They can use the certificates for year or must sell it very year IF they have more than necessary?

    Thank you in advance for your answer.
    Adrian

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    Replies
    1. Hi,

      It is not so easy to say when they will be transacted - with new products such as EUAA, the liquidity can be very poor at the beginning, hence the exchanges may not automatically add the EUAA to their offered products - this would mean impaired transparency, because OTC may have already witnessed a deal in EUAAs (forward). It was the case with ERUs - for a long time this was an OTC traded product only - exchange spot came later and futures after that.

      The allocation will happen by 28 Feb, and surrender by end of April each year yes. But they have no obligation to sell any surplus. They can carry it over to the next years.

      Hope it helps. Looking forward to your further comments. Please vitis our website www.vertis.com

      Krzysztof

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    2. Trading in EUAAs may be possible from the middle of the year June, when the single emissions registry becomes fully operational - based on the statement from the Austrian registry.

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