Monday, January 9, 2012

A quick "look back" at the December 2011

There have been three important "events" before the 2011 ended.

1. First was the marking of the new lowest level for the EUAs, which was 6.72 in the middle of December 2011.

2. Second was a vote by the Environment Committee of the European Commission over the amended draft of the Energy Efficiency Directive, which would give the EC the right to "withhold certain quantity of EU Allowances from Phase III of the EU ETS". The positive (pro) vote on this, provided a bullish signal (however very short-lived), but it was more like a "buy the rumour - sell the fact" behaviour on the market. What was more important to learn from this event, is that a lot of stop-loss orders were bit on the market and they pulled the price above 9.00 EUR ! (some 30%). This simply gives you the idea that there are still a lot of short positions even at this - relatively low - price level. This points out to the conclusion that some people expect the price to slip further down - however they may have their positions hedged using other (energy) markets or instruments. Everyone was selling into the rally and the year ended pretty much unaffected by the vote and the market reaction to it. There is a second vote on this on 28 February this year.













3. The EIB has started to sell EUA from the NER300 as a Dec13 contract, via exchanges and OTC. This gave additional supply on the already crowded market. On average that should add some 20m units of supply per month. First reports on how the EIB manages the sale should be out this week. More info on http://www.eib.org/about/news/ner-300.htm

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