Tuesday, May 1, 2012
By now all the installations covered by the EU ETS should have surrendered the units for compliance. We have been quiet on our blog in April - but we were very busy trading with and for our clients so that their compliance needs are met - buying the shortage, selling the surpuls and swapping EUA for CER/ERU and cashing in the spread premium.
April indeed was interesting month and many technical signals were produced, which could have led to a profitable trades. Here are some of them...
1. (above) Double bottom @ 6.00 euro - those with high risk apetite could have entered long @ around 6.35 euro (SL 6.20 or even 6.00), this less risk hungry could have entered long @ the break of 6.50 euro (SL 6.35 euro),
2. Continue long - adjusting SL (trailing SL) - you could also add to long position @ 6.76 euro , 7.07 euro and your SL would be triggered on the correction from 7.35 to 6.95 - if no Profit Take target, then the SL should be @ 7.07
3. (above) We see further the market didnt drop below 6.82 - a Fib level, which a long signal again. Enter long @ 7.00 euro with SL somewhere @ 6.75 - aggresive --
4. 7.02 support is confirmed (if you had a Profit Target it should be set @ 7.35 you would sell there)
5. We entered new April high and I believe all your lenght should have been sold here - If not you should have SL @ 7.20 - which is kicked.
6. We have another double bottom @ 7.06 and an entry signal to go long latest @ 7.20 euro - which would lead us to where we are at the moment.
7. (above) On the big picture i have left a resistance line @ 7.55, which coincides with 45 day MA (support from 15 day MA). 7.80 is " Fibonacci level " with possible further gains to 8.23.
Now given the fact that market closed yesterday above 7.41 - Fib support - we see good chance it will go up towards 7.80 and higher.