Tuesday, May 1, 2012

After compliance


By now all the installations covered by the EU ETS should have surrendered the units for compliance. We have been quiet on our blog in April - but we were very busy trading with and for our clients so that their compliance needs are met - buying the shortage, selling the surpuls and swapping EUA for CER/ERU and cashing in the spread premium.

April indeed was interesting month and many technical signals were produced, which could have led to a profitable trades. Here are some of them...



1. (above) Double bottom @ 6.00 euro - those with high risk apetite could have entered long @ around 6.35 euro (SL 6.20 or even 6.00), this less risk hungry could have entered long @ the break of 6.50 euro (SL 6.35 euro),

2. Continue long - adjusting SL (trailing SL) - you could also add to long position @ 6.76 euro , 7.07 euro and your SL would be triggered on the correction from 7.35 to 6.95 - if no Profit Take target, then the SL should be @ 7.07



3. (above) We see further the market didnt drop below 6.82 - a Fib level, which a long signal again. Enter long @ 7.00 euro with SL somewhere @ 6.75 - aggresive --

4. 7.02 support is confirmed (if you had a Profit Target it should be set @ 7.35 you would sell there)

5. We entered new April high and I believe all your lenght should have been sold here - If not you should have SL @ 7.20 - which is kicked.

6. We have another double bottom @ 7.06 and an entry signal to go long latest @ 7.20 euro - which would lead us to where we are at the moment.



7. (above) On the big picture i have left a resistance line @ 7.55, which coincides with 45 day MA (support from 15 day MA). 7.80 is " Fibonacci level " with possible further gains to 8.23.


Now given the fact that market closed yesterday above 7.41 - Fib support - we see good chance it will go up towards 7.80 and higher.

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