Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Are we heading towards historical low ?

Carbon was moving in a range 6.80 - 6.60 euro last week however it was lacking the momentum or drivers to go either up or down. Yesterday we broke below 6.61 which was (approx.) Fibonacci level and this opened the way to the downside, continuaiton of which we saw this morning - price hit 6.30 euro.

6.37 is another Fibonacci level which gives certain support so far. Low trading volume (most of the volume today was in my assumption automatic trading Stop Loss) can make the market more volatile and more sensitive to the actions of few players taking the advantage and giving the direction. We had an opening gap (yesterday close 6.57 euro -- today opening 6.50 euro) and the market may try to close this gap -- meaning that the price may go back to 6.60 level where it meets the previous support now being a resistance or will be tested for resistance.

Looking at the bigger picture 6.41 euro was the level from which the first quarter rally started, which can be supportive. RSI is also close to 30 which should in theory point to an oversold market - yet another supportive factor. However something tells me the market will more likey slide towards 6.00 euro and we will see if traders and compliance buyers will buy at the "double bottom" formation.

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