Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Carbon to trade sideways ?

Carbon is trading comfortably above 8 euro on Dec12 Futures for some time now, with a spike and most recent high nearly @ 8.50 on Friday (most likely short covering and "window dressing" before the Q2 and H1 close).

This morning we see some strength in carbon, after yesterday it gave up 2% of its value possibly due to some profit realization. It attempts to break or bounce off 8.25 euro - what I see as an important Fibo level (61.80 - please compare with chart). In addition, the 200-days moving average is also here as a resistance level.

Shall it break higher it can test the most recent high of 8.48 euro, but there can be no stopping it from reaching 8.80ish in the mid term.

Without further incentives from the carbon market (for example comments from EC about modification plans of auction regulation or negative stance of European countries regarding the European Stability Mechanism or ESM) the possibility to the downside is to test 8.00 euro support and eventually trade in a 8.00-8.25 channel.

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