Friday, August 24, 2012

Time for a correction

Time for a correction

Global markets give a bearish sign today.
Asian markets and European futures are in the negative territory, US futures close to zero and the dollar is appreciating.
The Brent was some 50 cents lower than yesterday’s closing price early in the morning. And the USD is appreciating 0.3% versus the EUR.

Markets went up quite a lot this week, investors, therefore might decide for profit taking on the last trading day of the week.
In addition, yesterday’s data signaled that the jobs market and consumer confidence remain weak in the US.  Jobless claims rose by 4,000 for a second week to reach 372,000 in the period ended Aug. 18, Labor Department figures showed. Consumer confidence dropped last week to the lowest level since January.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande will meet with Greece’s prime minister today and tomorrow to discuss the pace of reform.

At the same time, the EUA Dec12 is in an increasing trend.
The Relative Strength Index is at 67.5, so there is still room for some appreciation before it reaches the overbought territory.
Open interest increased day by day and is now above average.
The MACD is above zero and the 20-day moving average got above the 30-day moving average two days before which is a bullish sign as well.
Next resistance before the EUA Dec12 is the local high at EUR 8.48 hit on 29 June.

The price appreciation, however, got even faster in the last days, the price broke out from the trend channel. The price started a correction already today in the morning, as it opened 1.7% lower than yesterday's closing price.
The first support level can be found at EUR 8.0-8.02, the next at EUR  7.75-7.80.

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