Carbon traded without major excitement between the EUR 2.46 and EUR 3.53 Fibonacci retracement levels until last Friday, when the German Chancellor Angela Merkel used a church event to make her opinion about EU ETS public. As a reaction the EUA Dec13 jumped more than 22% within a day from EUR 3.09 to EUR 3.78 and went above the 20-day moving average at EUR 3.58.
Since then the price trades between the 20- and 30-day moving averages. Latter stopped the EUA Dec13 from increasing on Monday and on Tuesday. The first one halted a decline yesterday and today.
Resistance levels can be found at EUR 3.87 (30DMA, Fibonacci retracement level), EUR 4.20 (Fibonacci retreacement level), EUR 4.50 (former local low) and EUR 5. For another significant price increase, however, we would need important news (or considered by the market as such) like that from the German Chancellor. At the moment the likelihood for this to happen is very low.
The first support level is the 20DMA (tested already twice), the EUR 3.12 Fibonacci retracement level and the historical low at EUR 2.46.
Without news giving the price major boost, the most likely scenario is that the price moves in a range of EUR 3.00-4.00 in the coming days.