After trading in a range of EUR 3-4 for almost a month, the EUA Dec13 shortly visited today levels above EUR 4. The MACD climbed into positive territory for the first time since April 16, the day when the European Parliament rejected back-loading.
The price appreciation started last Thursday and after a short correction this Monday it continued until now. The EUR 4 level has been tested May 6 already, but that time the price couldn't break it. Today the price hit a daily high at EUR 4.08, but couldn't maintain its gains and pulled back to EUR 3.92 in the afternoon. It is also a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
The EUA Dec13 appreciated 27.5% since last Thursday from its local low at EUR 3.20. Although the RSI at 57.4 is far from overbought territory, the rally of the recent days might be a little bit overdone. Retesting the former resistance level at EUR 3.85 is therefore very likely.
Optimism (speculation?) about the ENVI supporting the back-loading on June 19 on the other hand might attract more buyers. If the price breaks the EUR 4 level definitely, the EUA Dec13 could find its next resistance at EUR 5. It fell from this level on the rejection of the back-loading by the Parliament plenary.