The hammer from the 10th of January that closed above the 200DMA (4.58 euro) indicated a possible change in the price direction or a correction we envisioned on that day, but we didn’t count with a bull run experienced last week.
The EUA Dec14 gained 12% w/w and hit a local high at 5.30 euro last Friday, a level not seen since 30 October 2013. The MACD crossed the signal curve on Wednesday and reached the positive territory on Thursday. This is a bullish sign. On Wednesday the price closed above the 20 and 30DMAs at 4.88 and 4.91 euro respectively that are now support levels. RSI increased steadily during the whole week to reach 64 on Friday (RSI above 70 signals asset is overbought).
Today we saw a correction to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 5.12 euro. For the rest of the day consolidation is expected. (All markets are relaxed today the US being on holidays.)
This week we will see important news flow from Brussels that can help the price testing support and resistance levels. (Supports: 4.53, 4.75, 4.90, resistance levels: 5.30, 5.62)