Friday, February 21, 2014

EUA Dec14: Who stops the bulls?

The bull run continued this week as well and the increasing trend remained untouched. The EUA Dec14 hit a 1-year high on Monday, on Wednesday and Thursday as well with the highest price on Friday at 7.25 euro. Last time the contract visited this level was in December 2012. The RSI (80.8) was in the overbought territory during the whole month of February. Only coffee and US gas performed better during the same period.

Political factors (Council approval for back-loading on Monday and delay in allocations) can help the price to appreciate further despite screaming RSI. Next resistance levels can be found at 7.50 (weaker) and 7.75 euro (stronger).

If market bought the rumour (Council decision) and will sell the fact, we might see a correction. Support levels are at 6.90, 6.69 and 6.53. Moving averages are out of sight. (20DMA: EUR 6.32, 30DMA: EUR 5.90, 200DMA: EUR 4.89)

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