Last Monday saw the support level at 6.18 euro break and the EUA Dec14 fell to 5.66 euro, a level last seen on the first trading day of March. The RSI fell to 38 on that day. The benchmark contract had a declining path on Tuesday as well, but it didn’t reach the low from Monday, it stopped at 5.71 euro. Wednesday marked the first day of increase after seven black candles.
Last Thursday’s doji candle indicates some hesitation, but the 20DMA crossed the 30DMA from above which is a bearish sign.
The price left a 3 cent gap in Friday’s opening between 6.09 and 6.12 euro that will work as a support in the future. The first test happened today already, but the support held further declines in the morning.
The MACD is in the negative territory, but didn’t fall further on Friday.
The RSI picked up and ended the week at 47. It seems that the benchmark contract feels comfortable near the 6 euro level. The next factor that could have a major price impact is the release of verified emissions data for the year 2013. The European Commission will publish the data in 1st April, at noon time.
Support levels can be found at 5.16 euro (the 200DMA), at 5.66 eur (the low from last Monday) and at the gap (6.09-6.12 euro) left last Friday.
6.25 euro proved a strong resistance level until now. If broken, the 20 and 30DMAs (at 6.53 and 6.62 euro, respectively) can halt the price appreciation.