Moving averages played table tennis with the benchmark contract last week. The EUA Dec14 closed above the 200DMA on 11th April and this moving average proved a strong support during last week as well. The 30DMA at 5.65 euro stopped appreciation on the three last trading days.
The recovery since the end of March is untouched, but the momentum went lost in the last two days of trading. Volumes were also lower due to the Easter holidays. The MACD is still in the negative territory, RSI at 52 (neutral).
If compliance buyers turn back after the holidays, the price has to break and stay above the 30DMA at 5.61 euro (also a low from 17th March near here at 5.66 euro), before testing the 6 euro level.
The benchmark contract seems to feel comfortable at around the 5.50 euro level and we might see a range-bound trading in the coming days with good entry positions between 5.00 and 5.20 euro and a chance for profit taking near 6.00 euro.