After the EUA Dec14 fell below 4 euro on 28 March and RSI into oversold territory, the benchmark contract recovered on Monday forming a bullish Harami candle. The momentum survived on Tuesday and the front year contract went above the 200DMA and closed above 5 euro. The optimism was short lived and Wednesday saw falling prices again. Thursday’s doji candle shows indecision, the EUA Dec14 is looking for direction.
The MACD is deep in the negative territory, the best news from last week is, that it didn’t dive further. RSI is in the neutral territory at 34.
In the lack of negative news that would provide more volatility to the EUA Dec14, the primary range for the price could be between 4.58 euro (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) and 5.12/5.18 euro (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level/200DMA). It seems now that there is natural buying interest at around 4.50 euro that might support the price in the coming days, but we didn't get any real bullish signal recently. Sideways movement in the range mentioned above seems now the most likely scenario for the coming days.