Monday, May 12, 2014

EUA Dec14: Range bound trading after compliance

Any attempt to provide a technical analysis of last week’s movement might fail for two reasons: the price moved in a narrow range of 5.07 and 5.40 euro and daily average volume fell to the half of April’s average volumes. Monday’s candle actually defined the range for the whole week already and the candles became smaller and smaller by the end of the week. 

If we are looking for signs, then there are more of the negative ones. The 30DMA slipped below the 200DMA on Wednesday and the MACD crossed the signal line on the same day. Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s candles together form a bearish engulfing. The only positive sign is that Friday’s closing price came in slightly above the 200DMA. The RSI is at 47 (neutral).

The closest support levels are: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 5.12 euro and last week's low of 5.07 euro.

In a positive scenario the price has to combat with the 20DMA first (at 5.42 euro) and with the local high from end of April at 5.92 euro.


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