Monday, August 4, 2014

EUA Dec14: Cautious increase in the cards

The EUA Dec14 hit a new multi-month high at 6.29 euro on Monday opening the room for hopes for further appreciations. Tuesday however brought sellers to the market and the two candles from Monday and Tuesday formed a bearish engulfing that made market participants more cautious. The reduced auction volumes in August however provided a good support for prices in the secondary market and the price posted modest gains in the next three days. Although Wednesday and Thursday didn't bring any new highs, the benchmark contract reached 6.36 euro on Friday, a level not seen since mid March.
The technical picture is positive as the EUA Dec14 continued both in the short and mid-term increasing trend channel. The price touched the upper Bollinger band last Thursday and the RSI at 62 indicates that a correction might be in the cards, but overall the trend goes upwards.
First support is near 6.25 euro which was a good resistance level during the last week. This is followed by the 6.15/6.17 euro level, a multiple low from last week. The 6.00 euro level is still very important being a Fibonacci retracement level, a psychological level and the lowest price hit last week.
On the upside 6.54 euro is the next resistance (a Fibonacci retracement level) followed by the 2014 high at 7.41 euro.

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