Monday, August 11, 2014

EUA Dec14: Reduced auction volumes didn't help to new highs

The technical picture worsened last week. The price was not able to hit a new high in the first half of the week and therefore the MACD crossed the signal curve on Tuesday and gave a sell signal. The EUA Dec14 fell from the increasing trend channel on Thursday.
The big breakthrough (in a negative sense) happened on Thursday when negative message of the ECB President woke risk awareness in investors. Mario Draghi detailed his worries about the economic recovery in Europe. The price fell below 6 euro which proved a good support until Thursday (it was not only a psychological level, but also a Fibo level and the low from the week before). 
The price of the benchmark contract fell further on Friday and hit a 3-week low at 5.75 euro when headlines reported that US aircraft hit Islamic State artillery in Iraq.
Other market participants attributed the fall simply to traders reducing long positions after the price was not able to hit new highs despite the reduced auction volumes in August.
It is difficult to find any support levels above 5.52 euro (the 200DMA). Last week's low at 5.75 euro could work as support this week. The lower Bollinger band at 5.62 euro could also maintain the fall. 
The first resistance level is at 6.00 euro followed by 6.13 euro and last week's high of 6.36 euro. 
The RSI on the other hand is still in the neutral territory at 48.

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