Monday, October 27, 2014

EUA Dec14: Consolidation likely after recent rally

Despite some negative signs, the EUA Dec14 hit a 7-week high last Friday at 6.44 euro. First there was the bearish engulfing from the 17th of October followed by a doji candle on Tuesday indicating uncertainty of traders about where the price might head. On the other hand, the 20DMA crossed the 30DMA on the same day giving a bullish signal. The 6.27 level was tested three times before it got broken on Thursday. From now it should work as a support level and the first test happened already on Friday when the benchmark hit a daily low at 6.28 euro.

The MACD climbed higher in the positive territory, but the RSI at 67 is a warning signal that despite the supportive factors (like the looming discussions about the MSR which will be a new opportunity to trade on) the price might consolidate at current levels for the time being.

Based on technical analysis the EUA Dec14 is in an increasing trend especially after receiving a positive impetus from the Council conclusions last week. The next resistance level is at 6.51 euro, but the relative strength index is close to the overbought territory which makes some consolidation more likely for the next couple of days. Speculation on the MSR negotiations starting in November might take off in the second half of the week.

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