Wednesday, August 26, 2015

EUA Dec15: Will the support level stop it from falling further?

The lack of an EUA auction and the front year German power opening above 30 EUR/MWh helped the EUA Dec15 in opening in the positive territory and in climbing as high as to 8.35 euro (a former 2015 high), but bears invaded the trading floor in the afternoon. 

They pushed the price of the benchmark carbon contract lower by almost 2% to an intraday low at 8.10 euro where the 20DMA and a Fibonacci retracement level built a support level.

Should market be surprised by today's move? 

European stock futures in the red suggested in the morning already that market is sceptical about the measures taken by the Chinese central bank to be enough to boost the economy. The euro lost its power against the US dollar and the German front year power slipped also lower pushing the German dark spread down by 3% d/d.

If we add to these factors, that there are only three days left with a reduced auction volume, we shouldn't be surprised that the MACD crossed the signal curve from above giving a sell signal.

The benchmark contract appreciated almost 3% since the end of July and more than 10% since the end of 2014.

Should the market opt for profit taking and break the 8.10 euro level, the next support is near 8.05 euro (the 30DMA and the intraday low from Monday). The increasing trend channel which started in March would be, however, valid even if the price fell to the 50DMA at 7.84 euro.

Source: Bloomberg L.P.

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