The long legged doji from last Monday and the fact that the EUA Dec15 was not able to maintain its intra-day gains was not the first warning signal that a correction might start. The week before the RSI went already above the critical 70 level and the price traded outside the Bollinger bands, above the upper one. Other warning signal was the bearish engulfing built by the first two candles of the week after no political group joined the compromise amendments to the MSR tabled by the rapporteur Ivo Belet by the Tuesday evening deadline.
The lack of headlines in the second half of the week clarifying political groups positions about the MSR pulled the price of the benchmark contract down further. In addition, recently published materials showed that the unallocated allowances (from the New Entrants' Reserve and unallocated to stationary installations due to reduction in the activity level or closure) - unless tackled - will affect negatively the carbon price.
The increasing trend which started last October is still valid and in theory the trend line shouldn't let the EUA Dec15 price fall below 7 euro.
After the vote in the industry committee in January a disappointing outcome in the ENVI (if the lead committee cannot agree on a draft proposal which can be tabled either in trilogue negotiations or in Parliament plenary) could however send back the price below the 7 euro level. Here the first support is at 6.80 euro (the daily low after the ITRE vote) followed by 6.55 euro (a daily low from last December) and the 200-day moving average at 6.48 euro.
Since last Tuesday the volume traded in the EUA Dec15 is decreasing day by day. Many traders might opt for staying at the sidelines in order to not be caught in a position when volatility kicks in during the vote in the environment committee.
Still the price is above 7 euro which might be a sign that majority of market participants expects a final compromise between the two major political groups in the Parliament (the EPP and the S&D). If this scenario becomes reality, we expect the 8 euro level to be retested.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.